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基辛格发文:新冠病毒大流行将永远改变世界秩序(中英双语)

  美国前国务卿亨利·基辛格4月3日在美国《华尔街日报》发表了题为《新冠病毒大流行将永远改变世界秩序》的专栏文章。基辛格在文中指出,新冠病毒以前所未有的规模和猛烈程度对人类发起袭击,对人类健康的影响可能是暂时的,但它所引发的政治和经济动荡可能会持续几代人。各国必须在合作的基础上解决当前的问题,否则将面临最坏结果。

  亨利·阿尔弗雷德·基辛格(Henry Alfred Kissinger)是一位出生于德国的美国犹太人外交家,与越南人黎德寿一同为1973年诺贝尔和平奖获得者,原美国国家安全顾问,后担任尼克松政府的国务卿,并在水门事件之后继续在福特政府中担任此职。

  基辛格在1969年到1977年之间在美国外交政策中发挥了中心作用,1971年7月9—11日,美国总统国家安全事务助理基辛格秘密访华,为尼克松访华做准备,促进了中美关系的发展。著有《核武器与对外政策》《复兴的世界》《选择的必要:美国外交政策展望》《白宫岁月》《纪录在案》《动乱年代》《大外交》等。

  The Coronavirus Pandemic Will Forever Alter the World Order

  新冠病毒大流行将永远改变世界秩序

  by Henry A. Kissinger

  亨利·基辛格

  April 3, 2020

  The U.S. must protect its citizens from disease while starting the urgent work of planning for a new epoch.

  美国必须在为新时代紧急规划的同时,保护其公民免受疾病侵害。

  The surreal atmosphere of the Covid-19 pandemic calls to mind how I felt as a young man in the 84th Infantry Division during the Battle of the Bulge. Now, as in late 1944, there is a sense of inchoate danger, aimed not at any particular person, but striking randomly and with devastation. But there is an important difference between that faraway time and ours. American endurance then was fortified by an ultimate national purpose. Now, in a divided country, efficient and farsighted government is necessary to overcome obstacles unprecedented in magnitude and global scope. Sustaining the public trust is crucial to social solidarity, to the relation of societies with each other, and to international peace and stability.

  新冠肺炎大流行的超现实氛围让我想起了年轻时在第84步兵师参与二战突出部战役的经历。今天的情况就像1944年底的时候,能感觉到有一种危险正步步进逼。这种危险并不针对某个特定的人,而是进行随机的毁灭性打击。但当今时代与那个遥远时代之间有一个重要的区别。那时,终级的国家目标使美国人的耐力得以增强。现在,在一个分裂的国家,需要高效且有远见的政府来解决波及全球、规模空前的种种困难。维护公众信任对社会团结、不同社会间关系及国际和平与稳定都至关重要。

  Nations cohere and flourish on the belief that their institutions can foresee calamity, arrest its impact and restore stability. When the Covid-19 pandemic is over, many countries’ institutions will be perceived as having failed. Whether this judgment is objectively fair is irrelevant. The reality is the world will never be the same after the coronavirus. To argue now about the past only makes it harder to do what has to be done.

  国家的团结和繁荣建立在这样一种信念之上:国家体制能够预见灾难、抑制其影响并恢复稳定。到新冠肺炎大流行结束时,许多国家的体制会被视为是失败的。这种判断是否客观公正无关紧要。现实就是,此次疫情过后,世界将彻底改变。现在还纠缠于对过去的争论只会让我们更难去做此刻该做的事。

  The coronavirus has struck with unprecedented scale and ferocity. Its spread is exponential: U.S. cases are doubling every fifth day. At this writing, there is no cure. Medical supplies are insufficient to cope with the widening waves of cases. Intensive-care units are on the verge, and beyond, of being overwhelmed. Testing is inadequate to the task of identifying the extent of infection, much less reversing its spread. A successful vaccine could be 12 to 18 months away.

  新冠病毒的攻击规模和凶残程度都前所未见。感染人数指数级增长:美国的确诊病例每五天就翻一番。就在我撰写这篇文章的时候,该病依然无药可医。医疗物资不足以应付不断增长的病例。重症监护病房已接近饱和,甚至不堪重负。目前的检测不足以确定感染的规模,更不用说逆转病毒传播了。成功研制出疫苗可能还需要12到18个月。

  The U.S. administration has done a solid job in avoiding immediate catastrophe. The ultimate test will be whether the virus’s spread can be arrested and then reversed in a manner and at a scale that maintains public confidence in Americans’ ability to govern themselves. The crisis effort, however vast and necessary, must not crowd out the urgent task of launching a parallel enterprise for the transition to the post-coronavirus order.

  美国政府在避免灾难即刻暴发方面做了扎实的工作。最终的考验将是能否阻止病毒的传播且一举扭转局势,这种扭转无论在方式还是规模上都要能保持公众对美国人自我治理能力的信心。无论抗击这场危机需要付出多大的努力、有着怎样的必要性,都不应漏掉这项紧急任务——建立向新冠肺炎疫情后的新秩序转变的平行机制。

  Leaders are dealing with the crisis on a largely national basis, but the virus’s society-dissolving effects do not recognize borders. While the assault on human health will—hopefully—be temporary, the political and economic upheaval it has unleashed could last for generations. No country, not even the U.S., can in a purely national effort overcome the virus. Addressing the necessities of the moment must ultimately be coupled with a global collaborative vision and program. If we cannot do both in tandem, we will face the worst of each.

  各国领导人主要是在国家层面上处理这场危机,但这种病毒对社会的毁灭作用不分国界。虽然病毒对人类健康的攻击将是——希望是——暂时的,但它所引发的政治和经济动荡可能会持续几代人。没有一个国家,包括美国,可以凭一己之力战胜病毒。要应对当前亟需解决的问题,最终必须要融入全球合作的愿景和计划。如果我们不能同时做到这两点,我们将面临两方面最坏的结果。

  Drawing lessons from the development of the Marshall Plan and the Manhattan Project, the U.S. is obliged to undertake a major effort in three domains.

  吸取马歇尔计划和曼哈顿计划的经验教训,美国必须在三方面做出重大努力。

  First, shore up global resilience to infectious disease. Triumphs of medical science like the polio vaccine and the eradication of smallpox, or the emerging statistical-technical marvel of medical diagnosis through artificial intelligence, have lulled us into a dangerous complacency. We need to develop new techniques and technologies for infection control and commensurate vaccines across large populations. Cities, states and regions must consistently prepare to protect their people from pandemics through stockpiling, cooperative planning and exploration at the frontiers of science.

  第一,增强全球抵御传染病的能力。医学领域的成就——诸如脊髓灰质炎疫苗的研发和天花的根除,或者通过人工智能进行医学诊断的新兴统计技术奇迹——让我们陷入了危险的自满情绪。针对大规模人群,我们亟需开发控制疾病传染的新技术和相应的疫苗。各市、州和地区必须时刻做好准备,通过物资储备、合作规划和探索尖端科学,保护民众免受大流行病的侵害。

  Second, strive to heal the wounds to the world economy. Global leaders have learned important lessons from the 2008 financial crisis. The current economic crisis is more complex: The contraction unleashed by the coronavirus is, in its speed and global scale, unlike anything ever known in history. And necessary public-health measures such as social distancing and closing schools and businesses are contributing to the economic pain. Programs should also seek to ameliorate the effects of impending chaos on the world’s most vulnerable populations.

  第二,努力治愈世界经济的创伤。全球领导人已经从2008年的金融危机中吸取了重要教训。目前的经济危机更为复杂:从蔓延速度和全球规模上来看,新冠病毒引发的经济衰退都是史无前例的。此外,保持社交距离、关闭学校和企业等必要的公共卫生措施对目前的经济形势也是雪上加霜。还应制定相关计划设法减轻即将到来的混乱对世界最弱势群体的影响。

  Third, safeguard the principles of the liberal world order. The founding legend of modern government is a walled city protected by powerful rulers, sometimes despotic, other times benevolent, yet always strong enough to protect the people from an external enemy. Enlightenment thinkers reframed this concept, arguing that the purpose of the legitimate state is to provide for the fundamental needs of the people: security, order, economic well-being, and justice. Individuals cannot secure these things on their own. The pandemic has prompted an anachronism, a revival of the walled city in an age when prosperity depends on global trade and movement of people.

  第三,维护自由世界秩序的原则。现代政府起源于由强大统治者保护的筑有围墙的城寨。统治者时而专横,时而仁慈,然而始终强大,强大到足以保护民众免受外敌伤害。启蒙思想家重新定义了这一概念,认为建立合法国家的目的就是满足人民的基本需求:安全、秩序、经济福祉和正义。个人无法凭借一己之力获取这些东西。在这个依赖全球贸易和人口流动实现繁荣的时代,本次疾病大流行引发了一场“时空穿越”——筑有围墙的城寨迎来了复兴。

  The world’s democracies need to defend and sustain their Enlightenment values. A global retreat from balancing power with legitimacy will cause the social contract to disintegrate both domestically and internationally. Yet this millennial issue of legitimacy and power cannot be settled simultaneously with the effort to overcome the Covid-19 plague. Restraint is necessary on all sides—in both domestic politics and international diplomacy. Priorities must be established.

  全世界的民主国家需要捍卫和维护他们的启蒙价值观。如果权力与合法性的平衡在全球范围内被打破,将导致社会契约在国家层面和国际层面的分崩离析。然而,合法性与权力的平衡问题延续了千年,难以与抗击新冠肺炎疫情同步解决。无论是国内政治还是国际外交中,各方都需要克制,必须分清轻重缓急。

  We went on from the Ba into a world of growing prosperity and enhanced human dignity. Now, we live an epochal period. The historic challenge for leaders is to manage the crisis while building the future. Failure could set the world on fire.

  我们从硝烟四起的世界大战中走来,步入了一个社会日益繁荣、人类更有尊严的世界。今天,我们处在一个划时代的历史节点。各国领导人所面临的历史性挑战就是:在应对危机的同时建设未来。一旦挑战失败,世界将大难临头。

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